By Bruce Hildenbrand
For Active.com
Team Astana's Levi Leipheimer will most likely have to ride for Contador and Armstrong. He's won his share of big races this season, so it is time for some payback. However, if his two team leaders falter, Levi is probably the best replacement rider in the race.
Going Green
Winning the green sprinter's jersey has more to do with consistently finishing in a high placing and not just about winning stages.
While Mark Cavendish will most likely win three to five stages, he will need to both finish high in the other flatter stages and make it over the mountains to Paris. A rider like Thor Hushovd, who won the green jersey in 2005, knows these critical details and will definitely challenge Cavendish for the jersey, even if he isn't Cavendish's primary challenger for stage wins.
The status of Tom Boonen remains up in the air after his second positive test for cocaine. He is currently fighting for admission in the French courts. If he does get invited to the Tour, he will most likely contend for the green jersey. He doesn't seem to be fast enough this year to match Cavendish in the final sprint for a stage win.
I should mention that Cavendish has publicly stated that he wants to make it to Paris this year. I hope he does finish the race because he is getting an undeserved rap for dropping out of grand tours. Mark is only 24 years old and very young to be completing two grand tours each year. At his young age, I think it is perfectly fine to drop out and wait for his body to mature, but it would be nice to silence his critics. It is kind of a no-win situation for him and you know he likes winning.
A True King of the Mountains?
I wish the polka dot jersey for best climber went to a more deserving rider, rather than one who racks up a bunch of points on category three and four climbs early on and then goes early and often in the big mountains. I even worked with the Tour organizers to make the jersey more meaningful by doubling the points on the final climb of a mountain-top finish.
I guess the next step is to really devalue the points on the category three and four climbs so that they really don't figure into the overall when the legendary mountains are reached.
It's your pick who wants the jersey since no one contending for the overall seems to be interested.
The Young Guns
The white jersey for best young rider (under 25) will most likely come down to a two-rider duel between Andy Schleck and Robert Gesink. I think they are almost equal in the mountains, but if Gesink has to ride for his Rabobank teammate Menchov, he might lose valuable time. If both riders are allowed to ride for themselves, then it will come down to the time trials where Gesink has the edge.