The Men
By Matt Lieto
It's that time of year again. The time when the most proven athletes in our sport come to race in Kona, and I stick my foot in my mouth trying to tell y'all how I think it's gonna go down. I'll do my best but don't hold me to it--there are lots of immensely talented guys with a chance at a top performance. I actually feel like there are about eight athletes capable of the win here, and maybe 25 capable of the top 10. It's going to be a race with a lot of movement this year.
The swim
The swim dynamic has changed in recent years due to the points system (smaller field), and I feel it has affected the way the race plays out overall--especially for the first few hours on the bike. The swim has been more or less one large main group with a few smaller groups behind, often, in prior years, containing the eventual top place finishers. Generally most of the players will be--and will have to be--in the front group if they have any hope at getting to the lead pack on the bike (and a good result come day's end). In the past few years, two to three of the eventual top 10 finishers have not made that front group. (It's worth noting that Sebastian Kienle was out of that group in each of the past few years, but his lowest finish (with a flat tire) was fourth. Clearly, some athletes are able to overcome this gap, but only the very best.
This may be the year you see some athletes really try for a "break" near the middle section of the swim, making an attempt to get an advantage with an early gap onto the bike course. Athletes with something to gain by this tactic would be Andy Potts, Jan Frodeno, and Andi Boecherer. If they group up with an athlete with nothing to lose, like Dylan McNiece, they could have a nice little cushion heading out onto the Queen K. This would be no easy feat, and depends on the energy they are willing to expend early in the race.
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We'll likely see a group containing the above, along with Tim Don, Brent McMahon, Freddie Van Lierde, Nils Frommhold, Ben Hoffman, Tim Berkel, Andi Bocherer, Luke McKenzie, and Tim O'Donnell, along with about 10 to 15 others. Athletes we might see miss this group, and who could make the top 10 include Andreas Raelert, Jordan Rapp, Marino Vanhoenaker, Bart Aernouts, Cyril Viennot, and of course Sebastian Kienle. They will need to hold this gap to about three minutes if they're going to have a chance getting to Hawi first, when the real gaps will start to occur.
The bike
As these athletes are exiting the water, the front group will already be onto the task of tearing each others' legs off early on in the bike. People are often surprised when they hear how "full on" the bike ride is considering it's 112 miles with a marathon afterward. Most of these athletes have targeted their training over the years toward Kona, including very high watt efforts to be able to deal with the surges all the way to Hawi. Don't be surprised to see watts and paces matching Olympic-distance efforts for the first hour of this ride.
Athletes who will be pushing the pace early on will include Boecherer, McNeice, Frodeno, Frommhold, and possibly Romaine Guillame. The big moves will come at Hawi, and on the way down and I expect to see a German train really putting the hammer down. Kienle, Frommhold, Twelsiek, Boecherer and Frodeno will all be very aggressive in this section, and will likely shake things up. The riders with the strength to hang on and or form a small front group will be McKenzie, Hoffman, Potts, Van Lierde, Vanhoenaker, and McMahon. The gaps will really start to spread out coming up Kawahei and back into town, and it will be a key section during the bike leg. Athletes like O'Donnell, Don, Berkel, Jeff Symmonds, Matt Hanson, Raelert, and Ivan Rana will need to either hang onto that front group, or form a chase group to catapult them into a position to use their proven running prowess.
OK, here it is: I'm calling Sebi for the win here. I think this supreme tactician will have the confidence to wait until the run to deliver the decisive blow. Last year he came into Kona with less than ideal preparation with an Achilles injury and a frustrating 18th place at the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship just a month prior. This year he comes in as the defending Kona champ, and with much better results from Austria last month.
The run
This run, oh man, this run. This is going to be one of the most dynamic and exciting Kona runs we have seen in a long time. We have so much talent racing, and more athletes with proven sub 2:50 runs than I think we've ever witnessed. We've got obvious Kona runners in Frodeno, Kienle, Raelert, Brown, Berkel, Viennot, Aernouts, Potts, Rana, and O'Donnel.
But we've also got athletes gunning for Kona for the first time who are capable of quick runs as well, including Don, McMahon, Symonds, Sanders, and Hanson. These athletes will be chasing a small group that manages to sneak off the front, including Vanhoenacker, Boecherer, Hoffman, McKenzie, Butterfield, Frodeno, Frommhold, and of course, Kienle. It's going to be up to these athletes to keep it contained and smooth over the first out-and-back along Ali'i Drive and allow the racers behind to get caught up in the mass chase where we will see many of them implode from a too-quick early pace.
Heading into the Energy Lab, we will start to witness a great three-man battle including Frodeno, Kienle, and either Mckenzie, Hoffman, or Frommhold. Whoever it ends up being, there is no doubt it's going to be a knock-down drag out battle. In the end, it will take a herculean effort to bring Frodeno down. If he does it, it's hard to express how unprecedented his cumulative result would be: an Olympic gold, an IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship, and an IRONMAN World Championship title? That being said, I still think Kienle has the experience, the skills, and the grit to pull off the upset.
So what's my "put your money where your mouth is" top 10? Sebi for the win, Frodo will make it close, but will have to settle with only moving up one spot this year. Third will go to a tough and consistent Nils Frommhold. Fourth to eighth will go to McKenzie, Van Lierde, Hoffman, and Potts. Rounding out the top 10 will be Aernouts in ninth and McMahon finishing 10th.
Matt Lieto is a pro triathlete and IRONMAN Live host.