Anybody's Game: Jersey Predictions for the 2008 Tour de France

By Bruce Hildenbrand
For Active.com

Who will win the prizes at the 2008 Tour de France? One of the big stories is not who will be there, but who isn't coming to France in July.

Much has been written about the exclusion of 2007 champion Alberto Contador, and his teammate and last year's third-place finisher Levi Leipheimer. But recently, tour organizers ASO also uninvited last year's green jersey wearer, Tom Boonen. It is all about drugs, both performance and recreational, but it is also about image, and the Tour decided that Team Astana and Tom Boonen weren't their poster children.

Let's not dismiss those who will be toeing the line in Brest come July 5. It is certainly a talented bunch of riders—all of whom want to leave their mark on the Tour. The race could have been better with Alberto, Levi and Tom in the peloton, but it's still going to be as exciting as ever, especially since the race is now wide open in all categories.

The Maillot Jaune

There is no clear favorite for the yellow jersey, though based on his second place finish last year, Cadel Evans seems to be everyone's top pick. The Australian on the Silence-Lotto team looked very good in the early season, but a knee injury mid-year has raised some doubts. Evans appeared to be on the road to recovery in the recent Dauphine-Libere so maybe his troubles are behind him. Regardless of how he finishes, Evans needs to show some aggression to win the hearts of non-Aussie race fans.

Alejandro Valverde is having a cracking spring campaign, winning the hilly, one-day classic Liege-Bastogne-Liege and following that up with a convincing win at the recently concluded Dauphine-Libere where he dominated in the time trial and then withstood big attacks from both Evans and Team Astana's Leipheimer. If the Spaniard can actually finish the Tour and not have a day to forget in the mountains then he is my favorite for the overall win.

Team Rabobank's Denis Menchov has twice won the Vuelta a Espana, demonstrating that he knows how to ride a three-week race. He has shown flashes of brilliance in past Tours, but has yet to ride all three weeks consistently. Not having to ride for teammate Michael Rasmussen may also help him focus, especially in the time trials where he is most vulnerable.

Carlos Sastre of Team CSC-Saxo Bank has always shown good form in the mountains. He is most likely to benefit from the shorter time trials, but they are still long enough to keep him out of yellow. A podium place is certainly in the offing, but the maillot jaune will require a lot of luck.

2004 Giro d'Italia winner, Damiano Cunego, skipped his country's grand tour to focus exclusively on the Tour. The former wearer of the race's white jersey as best young rider can certainly climb, but he is inconsistent in the time trials and needs to improve to win the overall. Like Sastre, he could be on the podium, but probably not the top step.

Can last year's King of the Mountains jersey winner Juan Mauricio Soler step up and contend for the overall? Clearly, that is the next step for the Colombian, but his time trialing is sub-par—sound familiar?—so he might be content to ride for the polka dots once again.

Dutch 22-year-old Robert Gesink of Rabobank is the revelation of this year's pro peloton. He came close to winning Paris-Nice and when the road turns uphill, he is right there trading pedal strokes with the big boys. He still needs to mature a bit and will probably end up working for Menchov in the mountains, but with a few change in circumstances he could be top-10 or even top-5 in the general classification (GC).

Sadly, this list contains no French riders, and it hasn't for almost 20 years! When will the French contend again in their home race? It has been 23 years since Bernard Hinault won in 1985; I wonder what he is thinking when he greets all those foreigners on the Tour podium.

It Won't Be Easy Being Green

The race for the green sprinter's jersey is now wide open with the dismissal of last year's winner, Tom Boonen, from the invite list. While it was Boonen's first green jersey, he won in convincing style and seemed to have found the right mix to getting over the mountains and still having the speed to contend the bunch kicks.

Credit Agricole's Thor Hushovd has won Tour stages and the green jersey as well, and has to be considered as the odds-on favorite in 2008. Robbie McEwen has also won the green jersey in the past and seems to be coming into form at the recent Tour of Switzerland. He will be missing his trusted lead-out man Fast Freddie Rodriguez, but he is still dangerous. My favorite field sprinter is Team Columbia's Mark Cavendish. This guy is so electric he could light up half of London. He is also a bit crazy, which is probably necessary to deal with the hectic nature of field sprinting. Especially at the Tour.

Up and Over or Young and Restless

The King of the Mountains jersey is totally up for grabs unless Juan Mauricio Soler decides to contend again rather than go for the overall. A big solo breakaway in the mountains, much like he did in 2007, may signal his intentions. Other than Soler, look for a bunch of skinny Spaniards with no GC hopes to try and lay their claim to the polka dot jersey.

The white jersey is awarded to the best under-25 rider. Though Rabobank's Robert Gesink is a mere 22 years old, look for him to climb and time trial well enough to wear this tunic. If not, he only has three more years to win it!